Israel’s Solo Quest to Reshape the Middle East’s Geopolitical Landscape

A new regional order is emerging in the Middle East, and Israel is pushing it via both war and peace.

A political map of the Middle East, source: , credit, Cacahuate

Israel is almost single-handedly attempting to upend the current regional (dis)order and it with its own particular but relatively straightforward status quo, envisioning a Jewish state alongside major oil-producing and wealthy nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt in a position of power and stability, while Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen would see their power and interests challenged.

There is no mystery that Israel has been quite (to put it mildly!) with its regional standing over the past decade or so, possibly even as far back as the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the unipolar moment shortly after the ‘West’ declared itself the winner of the 60-plus years of the Cold War against the Soviet Union in the 1990s.

Israel’s honeymoon with the West during the Cold War

To provide a bit of historical background on how Israel viewed itself in a tough situation and is now confronted with making difficult decisions after the Cold War, readers should be mindful that the battle between Liberalism and Communism uniquely benefited Israel’s standing in the then-bipolar world order.It was perceived by American policymakers — especially after the Six-Day War in 1967 with its Arab neighbors — as the expansion of Communism in the geopolitically significant and energy-rich Middle EastFor instance, at the peak of the Cold War in the 1970s and 1980s, Israel was a close ally of the West, with the U.S. president Ronald Reagan and the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as staunch supporters of the Jewish state — particularly the hawkish Likud party — and its policies in the region.The main reason for the close relationship between Israel and the Western bloc was the perception held by the U.S. and its European allies of the Jewish state as a fortress of liberal democracy in a region dominated by pro-Soviet and pan-Arabist states (i.e., Iraq, Syria, and Egypt) as well as traditional monarchies (i.e., Jordan, Iran before the Islamic Revolution, Saudi Arabia, and the smaller but oil-rich Persian Gulf Arab states).The presence and advocacy of influential in the U.S. and Western Europe, which worked tirelessly to enhance the relationship between Israel and the West, were also notable factors in maintaining these close and strategic ties.From the 1960s onward, a strategic relationship focusing on security and defense gradually developed between Israel and the Western bloc.

U.S. President Richard Nixon and his cabinet holding a meeting in Ova Office, Source: , unknown author

The 1973 Yom Kippur War was a litmus test of this nascent Cold War relationship, during which the Nixon administration massive emergency arms and munitions to Israel in an attempt to help the country fend off a surprising attack initiated by a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria.

Israeli military planners discussing strategy during the 1973 Yom Kippur war with a colation of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria, Source: , Credit to Bahamane

Israeli actions vis-à-vis its neighbors, especially its invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon in 1982, were tolerated and even backed diplomatically by its Anglo-American allies, as Jewish leaders often portrayed their struggle against Palestinian and pan-Arab movements as, in a broader sense, the Anglo-Americans’ own struggle against Communism and radicalism. Most of these movements, either overtly or covertly, were supported by the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War.

Israel’s sense of insecurity during the post-Cold War years

The end of the Cold War and the democratization period during the 1990s and early 2000s raised among Israeli leaders, particularly those in the rising Likud party, who viewed the U.S.-led global democratization agenda as having a destabilizing effect on regional stability and the political composition of the highly volatile Middle East.Other regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Iran, also saw that the global democratization phenomenon put their own interests and geopolitical agendas at risk, as it could spiral the region into social and political instability, driven unilaterally by the powerful but ideologically motivated George Bush administration.

on September 11th, 2001 al-Qaida carried out a terrorist attack on U.S. soil hitting the iconic Twin Towers in New York City killing a total of 2977 American civilians, Source: , Credit rds323

The U.S. to the 9/11 terrorist attacks — heavily inspired by the neoconservatives’ ‘Pax Americana’ doctrine, formulated by , who was G.W. Bush’s number two man at the Pentagon and enshrined in the NSC 2002 document — was based on the premise that to fight terrorism, the U.S., due to its ‘exceptional moral and political character,’ is uniquely positioned to enforce liberal democracy through military might.Although Israel famously and publicly encouraged the Bush administration to invade Iraq and even rebuild the Middle East by force, the Israeli security apparatus, particularly the Likud faction, sought to have the U.S. commit only to reordering the region based on military, security, and possibly economic agendas. They were deeply of the political enfranchisement projects that the Bush administration was also seeking to implement in Iraq and Afghanistan as a response to terrorism.

The U.S.’ retreat from the world stage and declining relationship with Israel

Since the Obama administration was elected to office, support for Israel has gradually become a partisan issue in U.S. domestic politics, with Republicans supporting and encouraging Israeli military actions in the Middle East, while Democrats have forged an evolving relationship with the country and sought to manage it in ways that would not endanger the support it enjoys from progressives.

Photo by on

In the not-so-distant past, the Democratic Party a staunch supporter of Israel, while the Republicans were the more Israel-skeptical party. For example, past Democratic Party leaders such as Tom Lantos, Henry ‘Scoop’ Jackson, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan were some of the most vocal supporters of Israel in the U.S. Congress.In contrast, the most ardent supporters of the country can now be found among a factions, including the Never Trumpers, House Freedom Caucus, Evangelicals, MAGA supporters, and traditional Republicans.

Israel’s unilateral actions strain U.S.-Israel relations under Biden

Now, with U.S. President Joe Biden — ‘Zionist’ and a veteran Democratic Party figure — Israel is experiencing historically weakened relationships with the U.S.

Photo by on

Under the Democratic administration of Joe Biden, U.S.-Israel relations have reached historic lows, despite the administration’s publicly declared commitment to Israel’s security against regional adversaries.While Biden and his party have repeatedly expressed over Israel’s aggressive policies, particularly regarding military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel, under the leadership of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, continues to act in a militarily unilateral fashion, provoking historic disapproval from the U.S.Netanyahu’s government is steadfast in pursuing its national interests through a combination of diplomacy and military action, often in of U.S. and international concerns. This dynamic reflects the growing tensions between the two allies, with Israel determined to assert its autonomy in shaping its regional strategy.

Israel’s dual strategy: Abraham Accords and confronting Iran’s influence

Israel’s current strategy centers on the implementation of the , seeking deeper ties with traditional Arab monarchies like the UAE, Bahrain, and potentially Saudi Arabia. These states prioritize security and economic development over political enfranchisement, making them suitable partners for Israel’s agenda.Through this alignment, Israel is focusing on cooperation in trade, technology, and defense, while relegating the Palestinian issue to the sidelines. This reordering of the Middle East, through a framework of mutual economic and security interests, aims to shift the regional focus away from longstanding political conflicts.At the same time, Israel is confronting its primary regional adversary, Iran, along with Iran-backed non-state actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. While these groups have considerable domestic political support, they face significant economic and defense challenges compared to their neighboring monarchies.Israel’s approach seeks to isolate these actors by solidifying alliances with Gulf states, promoting economic and defense cooperation that excludes Iran and its proxies. By advancing the Abraham Accords, Israel is attempting to reshape the regional order around shared security and economic interests, further sidelining Iran’s influence.

On September 15, 2020, Israel with the help of the Trump administration forged a peace treaty dubbed the “Abraham Accords” with the UAE introducing the pillar of a new regional order in the Middle East. Source

Israel is pursuing peace through the Abraham Accords while simultaneously confronting Iran and its non-state proxies through military means.This approach differs from the Pax Americana doctrine of the Bush administration, which emphasized political development and the use of force to address terrorism in the Middle East. Instead, Israel is prioritizing joint security, technological development, and economic relations, the pinnacles of the Abraham Accords with Arab monarchies as a strategy to counter the challenges posed by Iran and its regional allies.Despite U.S. and Democratic Party frustration, Israel is single-handedly reshaping the Middle East through a combination of military force and diplomatic influence, using both the sword and soft power to advance its regional interests.