Why hasn’t Iran retaliated against Israel yet?

An artist illustration depicting Iranian-made missiles. Image via Iranian state media

Iran has vowed to avenge the assassinations of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s top military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut, yet so far, no significant act of retaliation has been carried out against Israel which is leaving many observers wondering what Iran’s next step will be.There’s always something brewing in the Middle-East (ME), the so-called cradle of Abrahamic religions where the east meets the west and differences usually take violent and irreconcilable forms.Just as religious sectarianism has been running in the ME for centuries, political and armed conflicts between major powers, especially during the past few decades have been a stable of ME geopolitical life.

Screenshot via International Crisis Group’s interactive map showing the Middle-East and North Africa where instability and potential flashpoints are located as of August 9, 2024. source: crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch

The two Middle-Eastern heavyweights, Iran and Israel are once again at each others’ throats, much to the chagrin of smaller and conflict-avoiding neighbors, and there’s a likely chance that to levels never seen before.Both countries for decades have been vying for more power and influence in the region and both have used a variety of means in order to achieve their geopolitical ambitions.While Israel favors a more conventional state-to-state relations, prioritizes security, peace through strength and economic expansion vis-a-vis its powerful neighbors and intends to remain a western bulwark in a volatile ME and North Africa sub-region, Iran tends to carve its own unorthodox geopolitical agenda using non-state actors and taking full advantage of its deep knowledge of ethnic and religious dynamics in order to grow its influence in the region using a hybrid combination of soft and hard power tools.

The seemingly perpetual and self-repeating cycle of security tension short of full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel is becoming a fixture of the region’s geopolitics.It’s as if the Middle East loses its violent ‘charm’ without these two major powers clashing in one of the world’s most volatile regions, where a third of global energy supplies pass through.Despite numerous pledges of vengeance, Iran has yet to act on these threats, contrasting sharply with its previous operation, “True Promise.” Last April, this operation saw over 300 projectiles, missiles, drones, and rockets launched into Israeli territory. According to official , nearly 99 percent of these were intercepted by Israel and its allies, resulting in no Israeli military casualties.

A mural depicting the slain leaders of the Axis of Resistance. Image via web

The latest round of Iran-Israel tension has dealt an unprecedented blow to Iran’s regional hegemony, with Israel significantly raising the stakes by assassinating key figures like Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut.However, nine days have passed since these escalatory actions, and Iran has yet to respond. This raises two crucial questions: Why hasn’t Iran retaliated against Israel, and what are the reasons behind the delay?

This picture has been circulating on X (formerly Twitter) showing the location of Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran July 1, 2024. Image via social media

In this article I explore the possible reasons behind Iran’s delayed response to Israel based on recent news and developments.

1. Iran weighs the risk of retaliation, which results in the geopolitical alignment between Israel and the Arab states at its expense

A significant yet underreported outcome of Iran’s April retaliation against Israel was the unprecedented support Israel . At the height of the attack, countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia assisted in intercepting Iranian projectiles aimed at Israel’s airspace.This played a crucial role in Israel’s ability to effectively counter the incoming projectiles, demonstrating a complex-and probably overlooked- alignment of security interest between Israel and important Arab states in the face of Iranian operation.This support allowed Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu and his right-wing war cabinet to gain greater diplomatic and geopolitical leverage in the region, allowing it to temporarily shift the focus from the the ongoing war in Gaza to the threat emerging from Iran.It appears that, having learned from the aftermath of the April attack, Iran is now seeking a different strategy designed to avoid further aligning the interests of Israel with neighboring Arab states.

2. Diplomatic pressures and multilateralism play a key role in Iran’s new approach to the Middle-East

Unlike in the previous round of tension, Iran has shown an unusual level of restraint and caution, . Iran’s response last April, which involved a pure military show of force, dubbed operation “True Promise”, clearly failed to establish a strong deterrent against Israeli violation of its territory and interests.

So Iran now sees the need to change that and to build some form of “regional deterrence” against Israel via multilateral diplomacy and portrayal of Israel as the “rogue” state in the region.Moreover, recognizing the failure of deterrence, I, which Israel appears to be baiting them into. Instead, Iran has shifted its strategy by linking the Israeli assassinations to the broader conflict in Gaza, framing Israel as the destabilizing rogue actor intentionally trying to engulf the region in a full-scale war.

Iranian acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani (top left) attending a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on August 6, 2024. Screenshot via CNN

This novel narrative aims to build international diplomatic pressure against Israel, unify regional and global public opinion, and turn the tables on the Jewish state. To achieve this, Iran has intensified its multilateral diplomatic efforts,, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian mission to the United Nations (UN) also its case at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, where members condemned Israel’s actions, further isolating it on the international stage.

There are also that Biden was quite upset at Israel’s assassinations and that the Netanyahu administration did not share the plan until after the operation was over which deteriorated Biden-Bibi (read Democratic party-Bibi) relations even further.

3. Domestic concerns and economic strains limits Iran’s retaliatory campaign

Last month, Iran held an election that resulted in the victory of centrist and institutionalist politician Massoud Pezeshkian (born in 1954), a.The newly elected president has such as the high cost of living, economic instability, and soaring inflation rates, and has at a potential shift toward a more moderate foreign policy with the U.S.

A picture of Iran’s newly-elected president Massoud Pezeshkian (aged 69) who is seen as a more centrist figure in Iranian politics Image via Iranian media

Given these priorities, Iranian elites believe it is crucial for the country to avoid getting mired in escalating conflicts, especially with Israel. Instead, the country needs to focus on allocating resources to economic and infrastructure development, while working to restore public trust and improve governance.Recognizing this, Israel likely sees an unprecedented opportunity to weaken Iran’s regional influence by targeting key commanders of the Axis of Resistance. By doing so, Israel aims to divert Iran’s focus from critical internal issues to external challenges, thereby intensifying the strain on Iran’s badly-needed domestic reforms.

A huge mural in the capital city of Tehran was set up shortly after the assassination of Haniyeh by Israel depicting the Hamas leader (top left) and the newly-elected Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian (top right) holding each other’s hands in an act of solidarity and friendship (right). Source:

By continuing its attacks on Iran, Israel aims to provoke a strategic blunder from Tehran, hoping that Iran will launch a retaliatory strike against Israeli territory

Meanwhile, Israel continues to target the Axis of Resistance with bombings and targeted bombing campaigns, aiming to provoke a military response from Iran and its proxies and regain its strategic advantage in the rules of engagement.

Israel has continued its attacks against the Axis of Resistance’s military figures and assets. Source:

Over the past few days Israel has been busy bombing Iranian interests in the region. For example see , , and just to show you how Israel is enabling escalation against Iran.Will Iran be baited into playing into the Israeli strategy? So far it appears to be busy engaging in diplomatic campaign with regional international actors.