The Russian Bear Challenged Once More

Terrorist Attack in Dagestan: Geopolitical Implications

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Recently, Russia has once again faced a significant terrorist attack, drawing global attention. The Wall Street Journal and other outlets have reported extensively on this incident, which occurred in Dagestan, Russia. This region, along with Chechnya, once sought independence from Russia. Analyzing this event within the context of geopolitics reveals a different perspective.

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Dagestan has largely been peaceful for the past 20 years, with no major separatist movements. However, this recent terrorist attack targeted synagogues and churches, resulting in the deaths of over 15 people and injuring 25–30 others. The terrorists used firearms to execute the attack. Interestingly, Germany had warned Russia about a potential terrorist attack in Moscow in March 2024. Many Russians were killed in that attack, raising questions about how Germany and other European countries could predict such events. The Islamic State group in Afghanistan, also known as ISIS, has been identified as the orchestrator of these attacks.

This could indicate the strength of European intelligence agencies, able to predict attacks days in advance. Now, let’s delve into the implications of this attack beyond the immediate violence. The geopolitical significance of the location is crucial.

Russia, the largest country in the world by size, has a diverse population. Contrary to common perceptions, Russia has a significant Muslim population, estimated to be around 10% according to US data from 2016. This Muslim population is predominantly located in regions like Dagestan and neighboring areas close to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Historically, these regions have had high concentrations of Muslims, with some areas having up to 80–90% Muslim populations.When Vladimir Putin first became President of Russia around 1999, the country faced significant challenges. The Russian Federation had only emerged as a nation in the early 1990s, and its first decade was tumultuous. Several regions, including Dagestan and Chechnya, experienced strong separatist movements. The USA was also reportedly involved in supporting these movements, posing a substantial challenge for Putin.Putin’s response was decisive. The Russian Army was given free rein to suppress separatist groups in Dagestan, resulting in a Russian victory. Putin then established new leadership in the region, fostering stability and ensuring Dagestan remained part of Russia. Since then, Dagestan has contributed positively to Russia. The region has produced notable figures like Khabib Nurmagomedov, a famous UFC fighter and sporting icon. Over the years, Dagestan and Chechnya have produced many successful athletes who have brought glory to Russia in various international competitions. Everything seemed stable in Dagestan and Chechnya until recently. Putin’s surprise visit to North Korea, where he signed a defense pact, was unexpected. Additionally, Russia’s strengthening ties with Vietnam and its push to reduce the use of the dollar in BRICS countries have significant geopolitical ramifications. These moves seem to have provoked attempts to destabilize Russia, evident from the targeted attacks on minority communities in Dagestan.Although no group has officially claimed responsibility for the attack, the warnings from Germany and other countries suggest the involvement of the Afghanistan-based Islamic State. The attackers aim to replicate the turmoil of 1999 in Dagestan and Chechnya, regions that have seen significant progress. Dagestan’s cities, now developed and beautiful, reflect Russia’s investment in the region using the wealth from oil sales in the early 2000s. This investment aimed to create employment and maintain stability. The recent attacks, however, indicate that forces seeking to destabilize Russia are active again. Putin’s engagements with North Korea and Vietnam appear to correlate with increased violence in Dagestan. The attackers aim to create distrust among the communities in Dagestan, reminiscent of past conflicts.This attack is not just a local issue; it has profound geopolitical implications. How Russia manages the situation in Dagestan and Chechnya will be a significant challenge for Putin. Given his experience in handling similar crises in 1999, it is likely that he will manage to maintain stability. Dagestan will remain a part of Russia, and the region’s progress will continue.