Space, once the final frontier for exploration, is rapidly becoming the next battlefield. During the Cold War, it symbolized ideological supremacy; today, it is a race for military dominance. Both China and the United States are pouring billions into new technologies and weapons, transforming space into a potential war zone. The absence of clear regulation only heightens the dangers of this militarization. Beyond military ambitions, the promise of rare metals and other resources drives investments in asteroid and lunar mining, promising immense wealth and strategic leverage.

Space “Governance”

While most national borders on Earth are defined, the enormity of space and our limited knowledge impede the establishment of clear boundaries. Traditional spacefaring nations and new challenges are sending more rockets and spacecraft in a renewed interest in space. Yet, nobody knows who owns what. With multiple countries vying for dominance, conflict and a new form of colonization loom. Establishing space governance and ethical frameworks is therefore crucial for a peaceful and sustainable future of space.The first major legal framework was the of 1967. Drafted by the United States and the Soviet Union for the United Nations (U.N.), it was ratified by 113 other countries. The treaty emphasized the peaceful use of space and made nations responsible for their space activities. Crucially, it banned the placement of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, in orbit, on celestial bodies, or space stations. It also prohibited any national claims of sovereignty over space.The , adopted by the U.N. in 1979 and enforced in 1984, expanded on the principles established by the Outer Space Treaty. It proposed an international regime to govern lunar resource exploitation and ensure fair distribution. However, major spacefaring nations, including the U.S., Russia, and China, refused to ratify it, arguing it would hinder their ability to profit from the resources they had heavily invested in accessing.Other major legal guidelines are the (1972) and the (1976). The first holds states accountable for damage caused by their space objects on Earth and in outer space. The second requires countries to report every space object launched into Earth orbit or beyond to the U.N.The , announced by NASA in 2020, are the newest attempt to regulate space. The framework requires signatories to operate transparently and provide emergency assistance to astronauts in distress. As of June 2024, 43 countries — mostly U.S. allies — signed the Accords. China and Russia, due to tensions with the U.S., refused. Both criticized the “safety zones” — areas around lunar operations — designed to prevent harmful interference and ensure mission safety. Thus, under these guidelines, a Russian spaceship could not land next to a Japanese base.The United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (), established in 1959, is the primary body for space governance. It has played a key role in drafting many of the existing frameworks. However, its guidelines are mostly non-binding, limiting their enforceability. Many frameworks lack universal adoption, and the absence of clear rules leaves room for varying interpretations.Advancements in technology and new missions, such as asteroid mining and lunar bases, have transformed the space sector. Yet, space laws remain outdated and unfit for the modern era. The Artemis Accords have further highlighted the divide between the Western world, Russia, and China. To counter U.S. American space dominance, both have ramped up investments in their space programs and to build a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2035.

Resources in Space: Future of Energy Generation or Disruptor of Economy

According to NASA, the asteroid is about three times farther from the Sun than Earth. NASA has already launched a mission to explore this 225-kilometer-wide, potato-shaped asteroid. The discoveries it offers could have profound repercussions on our economy. In an interview with , Lindy Elkins-Tanton, the mission’s lead scientist, estimated that if the metals on Psyche were on Earth, they would be worth more than the entire world economy.Scientists estimate that the asteroid comprises 30% to 60% metal. Elkins-Tanton estimates that the metals alone could be worth $100 quadrillion. For context, the in 2023 was $105 trillion.Metals like scandium and yttrium, essential for smartphones, laptops, wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries, are also critical in military technologies like missile guidance systems and radar. estimates the moon holds over 15 rare metals, and asteroids contain even more. Space mining could become a new source of vital resources, shifting economic and strategic power on Earth and giving spacefaring nations a significant advantage.While metals may have immense value, water is the key resource for expanding space exploration. Though the early Apollo missions brought back samples, new technology has discovered water ice beneath the moon’s surface. The South Pole’s shadowed craters are especially rich in ice. This ice could offer insights into volcanic activity and the materials delivered to Earth by comets and asteroids.For future moon explorations, lunar water can be used for drinking and cooling equipment. The ice could be converted into hydrogen for fuel and oxygen for breathing, extending the length of space missions and supporting lunar mining operations.A lesser-known resource is Helium-3, which NASA exists in quantities of about a million tonnes on the moon. This isotope could power nuclear fusion reactors, which generate energy by fusing atoms, unlike the fission reactors we use today. Fusion would produce little radioactive waste and provide an almost limitless energy supply, revolutionizing energy production. However, progress in fusion technology has been slow, and it may take decades before the first reactors are built.The big question lies in how resources will be distributed. While the Moon Agreement aims for fair distribution, its lack of signatories makes it irrelevant. And the Artemis Accords only resonate in the West. Despite the Outer Space Treaty’s ban on property claims, this leaves a high risk of resource exploitation and conflicts over mining rights. The last time such large territories were unclaimed, European imperialist powers profited from global riches and left local economies in shambles.

A New Arms Race

“He who controls the air controls everything,” Italian General Giulio Douhet said in 1921. A century later, his statement remains true. A nation that controls and dominates space could strike targets anywhere, mine resources, and travel deeper into space than its rivals. Though still distant, this scenario underscores space’s critical military relevance. Unsurprisingly, major powers have focused on space militarization for years.

The United States acknowledged the growing importance of space militarization by creating the U.S. Space Force (USSF). Signed into by former President Donald Trump in 2029, the USSF is the first new branch of the U.S. Armed Forces since the Air Force in 1947.The USSF is with protecting both commercial and military space infrastructure. Its objectives include deterring adversaries, defending U.S. space assets, and staying ready to counter threats. To maintain its edge, it collaborates with NASA, private space companies like SpaceX, and international allies to invest in advanced technologies such as satellite defense systems and space-based surveillance.In 2024, China its Strategic Support Force, which handles space, cyber, and electronic warfare, dividing it into three branches. One branch, the People’s Liberation Army Aerospace Force (PLAASF), oversees all launch sites and military space assets. Russia has similarly integrated air and space defense under its .The United States has led space since the Cold War, but China is quickly closing the gap. Major General Gregory J. Gagnon, the Space Force’s deputy chief for intelligence, that China has been launching over 200 satellites annually, with more than half dedicated to monitoring U.S., Japanese, and Australian forces in the western Pacific. Chief of Space Operations General Chance Saltzman that China now operates over 470 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites.