The alleged shooter Thomas Matthew Crooke, posted a chilling teaser before the shooting on gaming platform Steam, saying, “July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds."This report comes as US investigators examined Crooks’ electronic devices, including his cell phones and laptop, to determine his motive. Initial findings indicate that Crooks was an intelligent loner with few friends, a minimal social media footprint, and no clear political beliefs that might suggest a motive for the attempted assassination.

‘One inch away from Civil War’

Soon after the incident, several Media Houses and political analysts started assuming that this incident will mark the cornerstone in Trump’s victory.

Arie Perliger, a scholar from University of Massachusetts, Lowell, said in an interview to Business Standard said, “we were basically one inch from a potential civil war”, he further mentioned that if the assassination would have been successful, “the level of violence that we witnessed so far will be nothing in comparison to what would have happened in the next couple of months.”

Who is behind this attack?

Soon after the incident, several Republican leaders accused Iran, referring to it as ‘an act of war’.

Although no concrete evidence has been found about Iran’s involvement and the suspect’s links, several conspiracy theorists and political analysts believe that this was done by Iranian intelligence agencies. The reason being, the videos and statements published by the Iranian Government after , under Trump Administration in 2020.

As unconvincing as it may seem, the Iranian Government has rejected all media allegations regarding the assassination.Citing unnamed US officials, CNN reported on Tuesday that US authorities recently learned of an Iranian threat on Trump’s life. That led US secret services to beef up the former president’s security. Nevertheless, it did not stop the attack.

Impact on US presidential elections

Trump addressed the crowd on Saturday. “He was spared by the hand of God!” a man wrapped in a flag chanted as Trump walked past a line of people snaking outside the 12,000-seat Van Andel Arena in downtown Grand Rapids, Michigan.

“The only crime I’ve committed is to fiercely defend this country,” Trump’s voice boomed in the accompanying voiceover. At the line: “When I’m re-elected, I will obliterate the deep state!”.

American politics has witnessed similar cases where there was a steep rise in approval ratings and popularity after the leader survived an assassination attempt.

While political candidates may receive an initial bump in the polls after surviving an assassination attempt, history shows that this effect is usually limited and temporary.And although most people remain opposed to it in principle, polls have shown that support for political violence has risen in recent years, with over 20% of Americans believing it may be justified.As authorities seek a motive in 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks’ attack on Trump, it will be difficult to discern the electoral impact of this shocking twist in an already unpredictable campaign season.