Iran vs. Israel: The Power Struggle Shaping the Future of the Middle East

Iran and Israel have been locked in a decades old regional struggle with each other that has a profound impact on the broader Middle-East’s regional order.

The geopolitical cat-and-mouse game between Iran and Israel appears to have reached a critical juncture, where the next significant move by either side could profoundly influence the balance of power in the Middle East.

Observers of Middle Eastern geopolitics have been accustomed to seeing Iran and Israel challenging each other’s influence in a variety of ways over the past few years.The two rivals have shown to possess significant influence over every aspect of Middle Eastern politics through their actions and distinct regional policies, shaping the region’s order — or disorder — in a way that shows no signs of fading anytime soon.That being said, in recent months, the longstanding animosity between the two has escalated to a critical point, potentially ushering in a new era in regional geopolitics.The next significant move by either Iran or Israel is likely to tip the regional balance of power, potentially favoring one nation over the other and eventually bring about a new and enduring order that will last for many years.Therefore, the stakes are very high, and the consequences even more profound than anyone could readily anticipate.

Non-State Expansionism vs. State-to-State Alliance

The Iranian strategy over the past several decades has primarily focused on increasing power via the expansion of non-state actors (both Shi’ite and Sunni) across the Middle East and North Africa, often along ethno-religious lines. This approach continues to be a key component of Iranian regional strategy and doesn’t seem to be in any process of reform or revision from Iranian foreign policy elites.

Iran has managed to develop and expand numerous movements and non-state actors across the broader Middle East and North Africa region over the past few decades. Image via social media

This may very well be the key weakness of Iran’s regional policy and the reason why Israel is increasingly and blatantly challenging its regional interests in the Middle East.In contrast, Israel has significantly adjusted its strategy for countering Iran in recent years by deepening its ties with regional Arab nations that, for decades, had been openly critical of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and the undermining of their rights. This shift has made Israel’s approach more confrontational and overt compared to the past and shows that the country is ready to shake up the regional balance of power in a major way.

Iran maintains a vast arsenal of missiles, drones, and other unconventional military firepower. Image via Iranian state media

Simply put, Iran’s gradualist strategy of relying on non-state actors, which began in the 1980s with the founding of Hezbollah in Lebanon and has continued since, is being seriously challenged by Israel’s overtly offensive approach: Israel is deepening state-to-state relationships with Arab nations in the Middle East — countries that neighbor Iran and have grown increasingly frustrated with the Persian influence.The Persian Gulf Arab states have traditionally been concerned about the rise of the so-called ‘Arab Street,’ which poses a threat to their societal stability and political cohesion.The Arab states in the Persian Gulf region view internal upheavals as the most pressing challenge to their stability, especially given that most of them are major hydrocarbon producers. Any significant disruption to their status quo could quickly escalate into regional and international economic crises.

Iran army personnel seen in a military drill. Image via Iranian state media

This is why they view pro-Iranian non-state actors as national security threats and naturally gravitate toward a regional order that confronts these groups. They prioritize strengthening state power over supporting social and civil society groups that challenge the ruling Arab establishment in these countries.From the perspective of Arab rulers, it seems logical to form security and economic partnerships with Israel, which has been actively working to suppress pro-Iranian movements in neighboring regions like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and YemenWhile Iran has continued to rely on expanding its network of non-state actors, Israel, on the other hand, has sought to both roll back the influence of armed pro-Iranian groups and directly erode Iranian regional power. It has done so by forming enticing economic and security alliances (e.g., the Abraham Accords) with wealthy and influential Arab monarchies such as the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and even Oman, which is sometimes referred to as the ‘Switzerland of the Middle East.’

In September 2020, Israel with the support of the Trump administration singed normalization agreement with the UAE that emphasized state-to-state relations in the fields of security, trade and tech. Image via social media

Israel’s Signal to Gulf Arab States: ‘United Against a Common Threat, Iran’

Israel significantly escalated its actions against Iranian interests during the Trump administration, finding the Republican leadership more sympathetic to their cause compared to the Obama administration, which pursued a different, more diplomacy-centered approach in the region, particularly toward Iran.To refresh my dear readers, the Israelis used be more limited in overtly challenging Iran’s growing power in the region.They usually relied on the U.S.’ soft and hard power to confront Iran predominantly via their highly-influential lobbies and deep-pocketed pro-Israeli donors in America. The U.S. was the “stick” the Israelis would traditionally use against Iran, without themselves getting involved.For example, sanctions, diplomatic pressure and isolation, stationing assets and personnel in the neighboring nations in the form of an overwhelming show of force were the norm from the 1990s until the coming of the Obama administrations.During the Trump administration, Israel, unapologetic about its opposition to the Obama White House’s diplomatic and multilateral approach in the Middle East, sought to directly challenge Iran’s power structure, with support from Trump’s national security team.Their goal since 2017 has been to establish a new regional order in which Iran would be portrayed and treated as the primary source of instability, while Israel, in partnership with the Republican administration and regional powers like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others, would be seen as the stabilizing force, driving economic growth and technological innovation in the region.The Israeli Air Force’s relentless bombings of pro-Iranian targets in Syria, southern Lebanon, and more recently in and the Houthi-controlled , along with its pledge to eliminate Hamas in Gaza and skirmishes with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are all aimed at deterring the further expansion of Iran’s ‘Shi’ite Crescent.’ These actions also signal to the Persian Gulf Arab states that Israel shares their strategic interests, laying the groundwork for a regional order that aligns the objectives of both Israel and the Arab states.

Iran and Israel are ‘locked’ in a zero-sum game

The influence of both Iran and Israel can be felt across the entire Middle East, as their actions reverberate throughout the region. Over the past few decades, both regional giants have shaped the Middle East’s social, economic, and political landscape, primarily aiming to weaken each other and diminish their rival’s influence and reach.Iran has developed unconventional methods such as ethnic and religious movements and non-state actors, many of which are designed to challenge and potentially weaken Israel’s security and geopolitical ambitions. In contrast, Israel relies on more conventional state-to-state alliances and partnerships in security, economics, and innovation to counter and roll back Iranian efforts to undermine its regional dominance.While Iran prefers a gradual and steady approach to undermining Israeli plans and essentially surrounding and suffocating it from the east, Israel, particularly since the Trump era, has concluded that the best way to counter Iran’s unconventional regional influence is through direct and overt actions, coupled with state-to-state alliances.The real question isn’t which side will prevail, but rather which ‘approach’ will triumph in the ever-unstable Middle East.