Three Reasons Why Israel Must Conquer Rafah

Michael Harris
Predict
Published in
4 min readApr 30, 2024

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Image generated with AI by the author using DeepAI
Mobilizing for a potential invasion of Rafah, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is sending a clear message to Hamas: Release the hostages that you kidnapped on October 7th, or we will conquer your last bastion of rule.It is unclear whether Hamas will agree to a short-term ceasefire that will release some of the hostages and avert an immediate expansion of the war to Rafah. Regardless of whether the two sides strike a deal, the Israeli Defense Establishment sees conquering Rafah as an integral part of winning the war. Here’s why.

#1 Destroying Hamas as a Centralized Military Entity

Before the war Hamas divided the Gaza Strip’s defense between 5 brigades numbering more than 30,000 terrorists. Until now Israel has successfully defeated the 3 brigades that were responsible for Khan Younis, Gaza City and its environs. Apart from the few battalions that remain in the Deir El-Balah region, Rafah is Hamas’s last brigade that is fully operating in the Gaza Strip. Once it destroys the Rafah Brigade, Hamas will morph into a disparate guerilla force that will operate in a decentralized manner throughout the entire Strip. Why is this essential for Israel?First, a decentralized Hamas will be incapable of carrying out the sort of mega-attack that we witnessed on October 7th. While a decentralized Hamas will…

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Michael Harris
Predict

Senior Manager, EY Business Consulting | Intelligence Officer, IDF Reserves

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