Image generated with AI by the author using OpenArtOn October 8th, one day after Hamas committed the worst massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust, Hezbollah decided to join the fighting. Using south Lebanon as a launching pad for terror, Hezbollah began shooting rockets at Israeli territory, terrorizing innocent civilians and forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes.More than 8 months have passed and de-escalation is nowhere in sight. On the contrary, it seems that Hezbollah and Israel are on a fast track to mutually assured destruction as the prospect of total war grows every day.Will the Biden Administration succeed in averting a war that is set to cause more death and destruction than the Israel-Hamas War? I argue that a war between Israel and Hezbollah is a tragic inevitability, and to understand why, one only need to analyze the incentives of three men: Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah and Benjamin Netanyahu.
#1 Yahya Sinwar, the Leader of Hamas in Gaza
The road to de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah passes through Gaza. If Hamas and Israel agree to a permanent ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah will be able to justify to its constituents and patrons that it can lower the flames in the north, either through unilateral action or through a diplomatic agreement with Israel.
