Geopolitics Review — 12th August 2024

Middle East Updates

Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Escalatory Spiral Continues
3. Israel’s Northern Region In Flux
4. The Israel-Iran Tensions
5. Historical Precedents
6. Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

• We’ve entered a cycle of escalation in the Middle East. The last few weeks have seen the deaths of Hezbollah commander Fuak Shukr, Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The attack on Haniyeh was notable since it took place while he was in Tehran.
• Israel hasn’t stated it was them who enacted the assassination. However, there are reports that the assassination took place aided by Mossad embedded within Iran. This wouldn’t be the first time this has occurred. One thing is clear, it is a security issue for Iran that this occurred on its territory, and was potentially a plot sourced within the country.
• With Iran believing the attack was of Israeli origin, there is now a huge diplomatic rush to avoid an Iranian response. Israel has stated if Iran responds, they will respond immediately. There is potential for the conflict to run away from us. Many believe a response from Iran could be two-pronged, with one attack coming from Hezbollah and one from Iran directly.
• I’ll explore the historical precedent of assassinations on Iranian soil, and the events in April that marked Iran’s first direct attack on Israel. Are we set for a similar direct attack, a response through Iran’s proxies, or a de-escalation due to diplomatic efforts? Let’s explore below.

Introduction

If you look at who started this current conflict in the Middle East, you’ll find that many parties had an input. Hamas for their October 7th attack. Iran in April with their UAV and missile attack on Israel, and continued rhetoric involving the death of Israel. Israel itself for its complete destruction of Gaza. the United States for supplying Israel with weapons for decades. The British and French for their colonisation of the Middle East, splitting the territory and resources for their own gain and then leaving the region in flux. The Ottomans for buying territory in the Middle East over a century ago?There is a variety of countries that are involved and it’s a discussion worth an entire book. Hence, so I don’t have to write a book, I’m going to limit the timeframe and start this recent chapter in the Middle East with the attack the Houthi Rebels made on Israel in July.

The Escalatory Spiral Continues

On Friday 19th July, the Houthis flew an Iranian-made UAV modified for long-distance and hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv, killing one and injuring ten. The attack took place near the US Embassy branch in Tel Aviv, with some analysis stating this was the intended target. As to how the UAV wasn’t intercepted, human error was the reasoning stated as the reason. The air raid siren was not triggered. The reasoning behind the attack from the Iran-backed Houthis was stated as an attack “in support of the Palestinians”.This marks the first time the Houthis have struck directly into Israel during this conflict, after months of trying. They stated that the drones are undetectable by radar systems, which is why the attack was able to hit Israel directly.The Israelis responded the day after with an attack on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah.

Photo by Andrew Svk on

The Houthis have been involved since close to the start of this conflict in the Middle East, which started on October 7th last year. One big takeaway from this is how the Houthi drone attack was able to get through. If it was indeed human error, awareness will be raised within Israel, and a tightening up against similar air-based attacks will be seen. However, if the Houthis do indeed possess a drone that is “undetectable”, expect more attacks of a similar nature.One overarching trend in war is the falling of barriers to enter a war, and the Houthis are a clear example of this. Anybody with a small drone and the ability to create some homemade explosive device can hinder the flow of trade through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, or launch an attack on a city. This doesn’t only lengthen supply chains during a period when inflationary supply pressures exist in the world, but it is also heavily impacting Egyptian income through the Canal. Also, the Israeli port of Eliat has been essentially closed since these Houthi attacks began. I’d wager in global geopolitics, these smaller groups having the capability to disrupt trade on a global level will be seen again in the future. As for the Houthis, these attacks will continue if the conflict in Gaza is occurring.

Israel’s Northern Region In Flux

The north of Israel has become a dangerous place to live, and many citizens have evacuated. The group with whom Israel is fighting to the North is Hezbollah.Israel has evacuated areas of Northern Israel, with 96,000 Israelis having left their homes. 100,000 have also been displaced in Lebanon.This Israel-Hezbollah front started on October 8th, with Hezbollah firing rockets at the Israeli position in the Shebaa Farms region, a disputed region between Israel and Hezbollah. Again, just as with the Houthis, this was stated as solidarity with Palestine. It’s clear the proxy groups are aligned in acting against Israel on behalf of Iran.The temporary ceasefire of November 2023 between Israel and Hamas wasn’t upheld by Hezbollah, who launched 23 attacks into Northern Israel during the period.

Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on

The start of 2024 saw an Israeli airstrike near Beirut kill Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy chairman of the Hamas political branch. Hezbollah responded with 40 rockets into Northern Israel a few days later.This conflict in the North started in the background. However, with operations in Gaza reducing, the conflict to the North is now taking a more prominent stage.On July 27th, an airstrike hit the town of Majdal Shams in the Northern Golan Heights. This attack hit a football field, killing 12 and injuring 42, most of whom were children. Israel accused Hezbollah, and Hezbollah denied responsibility, stating they had attacked an IDF base in the Golan Heights but weren’t responsible for the attack on Majdal Shams. The IDF reported after that the rocket used was an Iranian Falaq-1.In response, Israel struck Hezbollah in the suburbs of Beirut. It was later revealed by Israel and confirmed by Hezbollah, that Hezbollah’s senior commander Fuad Shukr had been killed in the strike for his involvement in the strike in Majdal Shams three days earlier. It was this attack against Shukr that started the number of Israeli assassinations carried out in recent weeks.

The Israel-Iran Tensions

Iran recently elected a new president, after the helicopter crash in May 2024 saw former president Raisi lose his life. He was replaced by Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in on July 30th.The following day, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran by an explosive device in the building he was staying in. Hamas also announced on August 1st that Mohammed Deif, the second in command of Hamas’ military branch, had been killed in an airstrike earlier in July. It was a huge blow for Hamas in the space of two days.

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Israel hasn’t openly claimed responsibility for the death of Haniyeh, but regardless of this, Iran has urged it will respond against Israel. This has come from the highest level in Iran with Supreme Leader Khamenei stating this according to three Iranian officials.The key questions assuming a response is to occur, are when, and how. Iran used to act through its proxy groups as discussed above. However, April changed this. We saw the first direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory. Will we see an attack of a similar nature from Iran directed towards Israel? US officials have announced they expect so. They expect a double-pronged attack, one originating from Hezbollah and one from Iran directly and the other proxy groups.An attack was expected last week, with Iran issuing a NOTAM on August 5th, which is a notice filed with an aviation authority to alert aircraft to potential hazards. The original NOTAM was filed for Wednesday 7th between 11:30 am and 2:30 pm and Thursday between 4:30 am and 7:30 am. Iran then issued a new NOTAM covering the period from August 11th to August 14th.Military drills commenced on Friday and will continue until Tuesday, as stated by Iran’s official news agency yesterday. From tomorrow, when the military drills end, we could have some indication of what an Iranian attack could look like.But, with Israel not claiming responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, would they interpret an attack from Iran as the first blow, and hence enact a response? Israel has stated if they were attacked, they would respond immediately and so it does appear that way. In April, Israel was urged by the United States to respond in a de-escalatory manner after Iran attacked with over 300 UAVs and missiles.Israel responded by sending three drones to an Iranian airbase in Isfahan. It was suspected that this airbase was used by Iran for nuclear research, something Israel has been wholeheartedly against allowing Iran to possess such technology. With its response in April, Israel indicated to Iran that they have the capabilities to perform such an operation within Iran. Iran stated Israel had failed with their attempts, and the conflict de-escalated. Will we be able to de-escalate this time? Before exploring this question, there have been assassinations that occurred on Iranian soil throughout the 2010s. How did Iran respond to these back then, and what can we learn from these previous examples when considering the assassination of Haniyeh today?

Photo by Ludde Lorentz on

Historical Precedents

Looking back, we have previous examples of Israeli assassinations of Iranians. In the 2010s, five Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated. Israel has openly stated it won’t tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran since Iran wishes for the end of Israel’s existence.Iran has accused Israel of the assassinations carried out via Iranians on behalf of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. The same strategy has been rumoured to have occurred for Haniyeh’s death. One theory was the bomb had been in the building for months, which would have been a huge feat of Israeli intelligence. An alternative theory proposed days later was that those acting on behalf of Mossad placed the bomb in the room only a few hours before the explosion.The initial series of assassinations ended in 2013 after the US pressured Israel, seemingly confirming the assassination orders were coming directly from Israel itself. But in 2020, another scientist was shot by a remote-controlled gun. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was head of Iran’s nuclear program at the time of this assassination.Iran has also accused the United States of involvement in the past, which it has denied. Israel’s intelligence capabilities are due to American technology transfer for over 70 years, so the Americans don’t have to be directly involved in such operations. Israel can perform such operations alone.As for Iranian responses to these assassinations, they shut down many Mossad-backed spy rings within Iran. They also attempted to retaliate against Israeli diplomatic missions around the world in 2012, but none were successful. After this attack on Haniyeh, Iran has arrested dozens as it searches for any links to Mossad. One thing is clear, the assassination of Haniyeh occurring on Iranian soil is a blow to their security. Another key question is if Mossad is operating within Iran, how deeply are they embedded?

Photo by Lianhao Qu on

Regarding the assassinations, we have examples from over a decade ago. However, when it comes to an Iranian attack on Israel, a new precedent was set in April. Usually, Iran acts only through its proxies. Now that Iran has been directly involved in a physical conflict with Israel, what can we expect going forward? As stated earlier, officials expect a two-pronged response, with one originating from Hezbollah, and the other from Iran and the remainder of its proxies.Israel has stated if Iran hits them, they will hit back. Some news outlets even reported Israel was considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran. In April, it was rumoured the United States was communicating with Iran to paint a picture that a response had occurred when truly it was political theatre. In April, the Iranian attack was handled, and de-escalation occurred shortly after. Do we have diplomacy occurring in the background this time that will contribute to a similar batch of de-escalation?

Concluding Remarks

Many countries are working to lower tensions. The United States has the USS Laboon and USS Cole in The Red Sea, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Gulf of Oman. It was reported that Putin asked Supreme Leader Khamenei for a restrained response, according to two Iranian officials. We’ve seen Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri visit Jeddah for an emergency meeting and Egypt’s foreign minister has stated they are communicating with the United States, Iran, Russia, and China to stop an escalation. Let’s hope a de-escalation can be achieved, because if Iran responds directly, Israel seems very prepared to throw an attack back at Iran. It’s rumoured the IRGC want to launch a strong attack, but President Pezeshkian wants to avoid a harsher response. Iran itself may not know how it will respond yet. But they will respond in some way. The assassination on their own soil made them look weak. A response will come. It’s the details of the response that are unknown.

Photo by Faruk Kaymak on

The United States has been stuck for months between supporting Israel so as to not appear weak to Iran, which it has done this past week by stating it will defend Israel in the event of an Iranian response to Haniyeh’s assassination.The United States is also loosening its rhetorical support for Israel as it continues its operation in the Gaza Strip. The United States wants de-escalation in the wider Middle East through a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. But, Netanyahu’s non-negotiables clash with those of Hamas. An agreement will be difficult, regardless of how often it is covered in the media that an agreement “is close”.Israel’s far-right government have strong views, frequently dehumanizing Palestinians. Netanyahu has seen his political alignment trend further to the political right over his decades in Israeli politics. He must continue to appease these far-right groups in his coalition to remain in power. If Netanyahu continues to choose himself, this conflict will continue.A potential Iranian response sees this conflict escalate further, and Netanyahu will hop aboard the rising escalation cycle. If Iran decides to step back, opting for a response of rhetoric rather than direct action, this conflict could pull back from the brink once again.November then becomes pivotal for Netanyahu. If Trump gets in, a more favourable deal for Israel could be expected, regardless of the international community uproar, which is in large support of a Palestinian state through the two-state solution. There are many moving parts here. Right now, we’re not trending in a promising direction. This should worry the entire world.

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