Geopolitics Review — 9th September 2024

State-Level Analysis of The US Election

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Bitesize Edition

• Over the last few weeks, I’ve explored the demographics behind the 2016 and 2020 elections in the United States. If you want to find out how ethnicity, age, gender, religion, and education affect voting trends in US elections, head to the Geopolitics Explained home page and search for those.
• Today, in what is the more important analysis, I’ll explore the US election on a state level. Of course, the citizens of a country make up the voter base, but a popular vote doesn’t decide who walks into the White House in January. The Electoral College does.
• So, what is the Electoral College? Which states are the most unpredictable in this upcoming election? Have any states flipped from Republican to Democrat or vice-versa since 2000 and could this happen again?
• Finally, if we take all these states that aren't considered “safe”, where do we end up in November based on current polling? How much could that polling shift between now and November? Find out more below.

Introduction

In the last few weeks, I’ve explored the demographics behind the United States election. But, as we’ve seen multiple times before, the election isn’t won by the popular vote, it’s won in the Electoral College. Today, I’ll explore the election on a state level. Which states will be vital in determining who enters the White House?

Registered Democrats and Registered Republicans By State

Before moving on to the state analysis, this is another graphic I wish to include exploring registered Democrats, Republicans, and Independents and which states have the highest proportion of voters for which party.

Note: Republicans who vote for Democrat candidates and Democrats who vote for Republican candidates often equate to between 4–6%.

States Not Included: Hawaii, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Vermont, Washington, North Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan.Going forward today, I won’t include this data in any further analysis. Consider it as a separate piece. For now, let’s dive into the election on a state level.

Electoral College Swing States

The most important aspect of the election in the United States is turning votes into electoral college votes. 538 are up for grabs, and 270 win the candidate the presidency.In an individual state, whoever wins the most votes wins all the electoral votes for that state, excluding Maine and Nebraska which use slightly different systems.Hence, the number of votes attributed to each state is key.

What is also important is where each state usually falls in an election. Most states are strong Democrats or strong Republicans, and so don’t often flip. It’s the swing states where the election will be decided. They are stated below:

• Arizona (11 Votes)
• Georgia (16 Votes)
• Michigan (15 Votes)
• Nevada (6 Votes)
• North Carolina (16 Votes)
• Pennsylvania (19 Votes)
• Wisconsin (10 Votes)
• New Hampshire (4 Votes)
• Virginia (13 Votes)

I include New Hampshire and Virginia as potential swing states while many other analysts don’t. Both are currently polling as Democratic states, but aren’t considered safe by any means.From this group of swing states remaining unaligned in the prediction, and the other states falling to Democrats or Republicans as predicted in the RoadTo270 scenario, there are 53 winning combinations for the Democrats and 64 for the Republicans. In 12 scenarios, the two parties would tie. This example is seen below.

In 31 of the 53 Democrat-winning scenarios, they win Pennslyvania’s 19 votes. In a separate count, in 31 of these 53 winning scenarios, the Democrats win Georgia’s 16 votes.In 32 of the 64 Republican winning scenarios, they win Pennslyvania. In 26 of the 64 Republican winning scenarios, they win Georgia.Pennsylvania and Georgia will be the two states to keep an eye on. Michigan and North Carolina with 16 and 15 votes respectively are also important.

Although there are states both sides would prefer to win on their pathways to a potential victory, there are no states that either the Democrats or Republicans must win. There are also no states that they don’t need individually to win overall, so all these swing states have the potential to affect the outcome.

Outside of these swing states, there are also states that have flipped sides since the 2000 election, or that aren’t considered “safe” for the party who is suspected to win said state. I’ll explore these examples below.

Flipped States Since 2000

Below, I’ll mention other states that have changed sides since the 2000 election at least once:

• New Mexico (5 Votes)
• Colorado (10 Votes)
• Florida (30 Votes)
• Ohio (17 Votes)
• Indiana (11 Votes)
• Iowa (6 Votes)

It’s these states that could also make a difference. Including the swing states mentioned earlier, these states account for 189 electoral college votes. That’s a large proportion of this election that is up in the air.Finally, these states aren’t safe states for the party tipped to win them:

• Texas (40 Votes)
• Alaska (3 Votes)
• Minnesota (10 Votes)
• Maine (4 Votes)

Adding these states contributes to 246 electoral college votes that aren’t classed as safe, as seen in the creme colour.

Can we begin to predict where these states could fall? Let’s see what could unfold from this point with 246 undecided electoral votes through Nate Silver’s polls as of yesterday, September 8th.

Nate Silver Post:

Polling And Analysis

• Arizona — Trump
• Georgia — Harris
• Michigan — Harris
• Nevada — Harris
• North Carolina — Trump
• Pennsylvania — Harris
• Wisconsin — Harris
• New Hampshire — Harris
• Virginia — Harris
• New Mexico — Undecided
• Colorado — Undecided
• Florida — Trump
• Ohio — Trump
• Indiana — Undecided
• Iowa — Undecided
• Texas — Trump
• Alaska — Undecided
• Minnesota — Harris
• Maine — Undecided

In this scenario, the result of New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, and Alaska wouldn’t matter, with Harris winning the 270 votes to see her in the White House. Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada going to the Democrats would be key to this. These are seen in light blue above.However, again per research from Nate Silver, the trend in many of these states is seeing the margin the Democrats currently hold decrease, favouring Trump and the Republicans. Since the Democratic National Convention, Republicans have increased their polling percentages in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona, as well as North Carolina.Nate Silver Post: Georgia, however, has flipped in the polls to the Democrats, and the overall national polls have seen the Democrats building a lead, likely through greater polling support in states that are already predicted safe Democrat victories.This very much highlights the differences between 2016 and 2020. In the 2016 election for the Democrats, Clinton lost Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia, only winning Nevada. In Biden’s 2020 victory, he won all of the states mentioned above.As explored earlier, the states to keep an eye on are Pennsylvania and Georgia, but Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada are also important for the Democrats. North Carolina is also not to be forgotten.Pennsylvania is seemingly trending in a Trump direction, whereas Georgia is trending towards the Democrats. The debate between Harris and Trump is being held tomorrow in Pennsylvania. It’s clear both recognise the importance of the state as a key battleground. Let’s keep an eye on the debate tomorrow to assess any fallout and see if Harris can reverse this trend in Pennsylvania.

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Concluding Remarks

What’s important to note here is we are still a way off from November. It was looking like a Trump Presidency was set in stone a month or two ago, especially after the debate with Biden highlighted his cognitive decline. Yet after the change from Biden to Harris, the momentum was with Harris. Are we now trending back towards an election process with Trump in the driver’s seat? Regardless, politics is moving quickly here. This post highlights which states will be important, but I expect much more news and polling before November to influence the narrative. With that said, the key takeaways should be these key states to keep an eye on, not the current conditions of polling and forecasts.Again, I’ve provided a lot of data here. Next week, I’ll explore more hypotheses to see if the data supports some predictions I’ll make as to the outcome of this election and previous elections.I’ll also explore the methods behind polling. Are the Democrats and Republicans undertaking the polls fairly, or are they swayed towards receiving favourable results? Come back next week for more!

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