Bitesize Edition

• At the end of July, rumours began circulating that Joe Biden would be pulling out of the race as the Democratic candidate. A few days later, the decision was confirmed. Whether originating from Biden himself, or moves made by Nancy Pelosi and others, Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign was no more. In his place, it was quickly ascertained that enough delegates supported Kamala Harris.
• As this process unfolded, I questioned if this had happened before. On March 31st, 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson, also a Democrat, announced he wouldn’t be running in that year’s election.
• It was a tight race, with Republican Richard Nixon eventually winning the Presidency after Johnson stepped down. Looking deeper into this scenario, how close a race was it? What key policies and events of the time defined the election campaigns, and how much did the third independent candidate impact the final results? Find out more below.

Introduction

My analysis of the US election on the state level via hypothesis testing is taking more time than anticipated, hence this week I decided to flashback to the last time a President stepped down from running for re-election. This occurred when Lyndon Johnson didn’t seek re-election in 1968.As is unfolding during this election cycle, news is moving quickly, and many narratives are weaving together simultaneously. This is exactly what also unfolded in 1968.

Who Was Lyndon B. Johnson?

Lyndon Baines Johnson was the 36th President of the United States from 1963 to 1969. He was thrown into the job after the assassination of JFK on November 22nd, 1963. In 1964, he won in a landslide.The big policies of the time were civil rights, social welfare, and education. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, Medicare, Medicaid, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 were all launched during his Presidency.The biggest issue of the time was the Vietnam War. The war in Vietnam grew more unpopular as the war progressed, and this was felt by Johnson’s own ratings.

As a result of his declining popularity, Johnson declined to seek re-election in the 1968 Presidential election, announcing the end of March 1968. Richard Nixon ran for the Republicans, Hubert Humphrey for the Democrats, and George Wallace for the American Independent Party.Outside of the candidates running, I’m interested in the general political environment. Today, politics is deemed to be fragmenting in the United States. One of Harris’ narratives she’s running with is just this idea. She blames Trump for the fragmentation, stating she’ll be a president for all. Interestingly, politics was just as fragmented in 1968.

1968 Election Run-Up

Johnson had attempted to implement the “credibility gap”, remaining optimistic while the reality on the ground in Vietnam was nothing of the sort. He was also bested significantly in the Democratic primaries by Senator Eugene McCarthy, who was an anti-Vietnam war candidate. The writing was on the wall for Johnson.The election run-up included the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr on April 4th, 1968. This sparked hundreds of riots in the US and reinforced the civil rights movement and racial tensions that occurred throughout the decade.Two months later, on June 5th, 1968, Robert Kennedy was assassinated after winning the California Democratic primary. It has been assessed that his 24-year-old killer, a Palestinian, was against RFK’s strong support for Israel, especially during the Six-Day War of 1967. The nation grieved for RFK, just as it had for JFK five years earlier. It was clear that the United States found itself in a period of national chaos.The Democratic National Convention in August 1968 was overshadowed by anti-war protests. The Democrats were seemingly on the ropes. This was confirmed by the election result, which saw Richard Nixon win the Electoral College Vote and hence the Presidency.

1968 Election Aftermath

Nixon’s victory was attributed to the “silent majority”, who were unhappy with the social unrest, civil rights issues, and Vietnam War issues, and hence wanted to move away from the Democrats.Nixon appealed to the Southern states, specifically white voters. This shift continues to affect the United States today, a topic I’ll discuss later in this piece. Nixon also promised “peace with honour” in Vietnam. He didn’t pursue this, with Vietnam dragging on until 1975, having also expanded into Cambodia in 1970, but his rhetoric will have certainly attracted voters. The Civil Rights movement continued into the early 1970s.This also marked an election where the independent candidate had a significant effect. George Wallace achieved 13.5% of the popular vote and won five Southern states. He notably opposed civil rights legislation and appealed to white voters who also had such beliefs. Other trends included the Women’s Liberation Movement and the counterculture. These started the clock for the America which we analyse today.These long-term processes in American politics are named party systems. During this time, we found ourselves by most accounts, in the 6th Party System.

US 6th Party System

Before diving into the 6th Party System, it’s prudent to discuss the 5th. Also known as the New Deal Party System, this era of American politics began with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, also notable for being the election close to the end of the Great Depression.As such chaos was occurring, the Fifth Party System marked Roosevelt’s implementation of an expanded size and power of the federal government. As a result of this, the Democrats experienced a period of dominance until 1952. This was aided by the realignment of the Progressives in the Rust Belt and the Western Coast and the Socialists in the Sun Belt and the Western Coast, who found themselves more in line with the Democrats.The Democrats then prioritised civil rights starting in the 1960s, which was one of the biggest factors leading to the Sixth Party System. The periodicity is debated, but the Sixth Party System is stated to have started in 1968 or 1980.As discussed above, the move of the Southern States in the 1968 election to the Republican party led to a period of Republican domination, with Nixon (1968, 1972), Reagan (1980, 1984), George H. W. Bush (1988), and George W. Bush (2000,2004) being Republican presidents. Jimmy Carter (1976), and Bill Clinton (1992, 1996) were the only Democrat Presidents before Obama rose to the Presidency in 2008 and 2012.

Transition To The 7th Party System

So, if party systems are marked by the domination of one party, my post a few weeks ago on individual voters seemed to provide evidence in many demographic categories for a period of potential Democrat domination. Younger voters prefer Democrats, who will come of age and become a larger proportion of the population due to lower birth rates.

However, the debate around the 7th Party System is that Trump has completely reshaped the Republicans, and the Democrats will respond with change as a result. The ethnic shifts in America have seen greater support for the Democrats, while white voters have aligned more strongly with Trump and the Republicans in recent years. Religious voters, especially Christians are more Republican-aligned, while higher education, as we explored a few weeks ago, also implies greater support for the Democrats. In analysing party systems, demographic changes are a great basis from which to start. As demographics are set to shift dramatically in the coming decades due to low birth rates and migration, are we due to another shift to a new party system?

Concluding Remarks

The last few years in American politics have seemed intense and volatile. Do you believe this will continue, or are we entering a period of calm once again? Next week, in the final piece in this series, I’ll explore some final hypotheses pertaining to this election cycle. Keep an eye out for that next Monday.

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